If you’ve ever missed that first shot of the day for no good reason, odds are your rifle decided to walk its point of impact overnight. Cold mornings have a way of bringing out the worst in factory barrels, bedding jobs, and budget optics. You spend hours dialing it in on the bench, but when the mercury drops and the sun’s barely up, the zero plays hide and seek. It’s not always user error—some rifles just can’t hold still when the temperature swings. And when that happens on a hunt, all the confidence you built at the range goes right out the window. You need to know which rifles have this habit before you blame yourself or your loads. This isn’t about nostalgia or trends—it’s about watching how steel, aluminum, and plastic behave when the cold creeps in. And some setups are far more sensitive than others.
Remington 783
The 783 gets praised for its price tag and out-of-the-box accuracy, but the cold can throw it off more than you’d expect. The synthetic stock is prone to flexing, especially when temps swing hard between morning and midday. And if you’re using the factory scope rings, thermal contraction in the mount screws can cause minor shifts that turn into missed shots. The barrel isn’t floated with much consistency, either, and a little contact goes a long way in cold conditions. On warmer afternoons, it’ll shoot tight. But early-season mornings before sunrise? You better recheck zero every trip.
Savage Axis II XP
The Axis II XP has earned a solid following from budget-minded hunters, but don’t trust your last group to hold once the weather turns. The plastic stock feels like it came out of a cereal box, and it behaves that way in sub-freezing temps. Pressure points change, and the bedding block—if you can call it that—doesn’t stop the barrel from shifting when the polymer shrinks. Add in a cheap factory scope, and you’re stacking tolerances that don’t play nice with the cold. One morning it’s dead-on, the next you’re chasing impact left and low.
Winchester XPR
The XPR has decent bones, but it’s far more sensitive to temperature changes than it should be. Barrel harmonics seem to wander with cold soak, especially after a full night in the truck or cabin. The action-to-stock fit isn’t as tight as it feels, and any expansion or contraction shows up downrange. If you fire a fouling shot, things tend to settle—but that first cold-bore shot can be frustratingly different every time. It’s a decent rifle with a small tolerance window, and that window slams shut when frost is on the ground.
Ruger American Predator
Plenty of folks love the Predator for its value and accuracy potential, but the molded V-block bedding doesn’t hold up well when temps drop. I’ve seen POI shifts of two inches or more at 100 yards on frosty mornings, especially when the barrel’s been left in the cold overnight. And if you’re running a suppressor, the added weight on the end doesn’t help—cold metal tugs on the muzzle differently than warm. Some shooters try to free-float or re-bed, but for most hunters, the shift shows up when it matters most: first shot, cold barrel, cold air.
Browning AB3
The AB3 looks like a step up from some other entry-level rifles, but it still struggles with consistency in the cold. The stock-to-action interface has too much give, and the polymer stock doesn’t do the gun any favors once it gets below freezing. The cold bore tends to throw the first shot wide, and even follow-ups aren’t always where they should be. Accuracy isn’t terrible, but if you need reliable first-shot placement after a long sit in a tree stand, you might want to look elsewhere or re-bed it in something stiffer.
Mossberg Patriot
The Patriot is another budget bolt gun that punches above its weight in good conditions and falls short in bad ones. I’ve seen groups tighten nicely in 50-degree weather, only to shift a full MOA lower and right once temps drop below freezing. The synthetic stock and bedding setup allow a little too much movement, and while the barrel looks free-floated, it’s often inconsistent. Thermal contraction does a number on this rifle, especially with factory rings and scopes. You might get lucky with a solid one, but I wouldn’t count on repeatable cold-morning accuracy across the board.
Tikka T3x Lite
This one might ruffle feathers, but even the T3x Lite isn’t immune to cold-bore shifts. The action is smooth and the accuracy is generally impressive, but the lightweight profile barrel can throw a different POI on a cold bore compared to a warm one. It’s not dramatic, but it’s there—especially when the rifle’s been sitting in a frosty case or on a four-wheeler all night. The synthetic stock is better than most, but the thinner build means faster cooling, which exaggerates that first-shot wander. If you’re shooting past 200 yards on a cold morning, know your rifle’s mood.
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*This article was developed with AI-powered tools and has been carefully reviewed by our editors.
